February 18th, 2008
Posted in
Caucus, You Tube |
No Comments »
February 9th, 2008
E. WASH. - Thousands turned out as Precinct Caucuses for the Democratic and Republican Parties were held Saturday at various locations throughout the area. The Spokane Democratic Chair reported seeing double the number of usual voter turn out some precincts, even triple in some places such as the 4th Legislative District.
Spokane Republican Caucus Results: With 90% of the precincts reporting - Ron Paul 46%, Mike Huckabee 20%, John Mccain 15%, Mitt Romney 9%, Uncommitted 10%.
Spokane Democratic Caucus Results: With 98% precincts reporting - Obama 62%, Clinton 35%
WA State Democratic Caucus Results: Barack Obama has won the Washington State Democratic Caucus.
WA State Republican Caucus Results: With 37.1% precincts reporting - Huckabee 26.4%, McCain 22.9%, Paul 20.3%, Romney 18%, Other 1.7%, Uncommitted 10.7%
Read the rest of this entry »
Posted in
Caucus, Ron Paul |
1 Comment »
January 13th, 2008

It’s funny how things happen sometimes. After the New Hampshire primary last Tuesday there were some suggestions that the Democratic primary might have been tampered with. I have taken part in some discussions of this on and off the blog, and my basic take was that
- the implications are important enough for the allegations to be taken seriously;
- “taking the allegations seriously” means carrying out some further tests before jumping to conclusions, especially if you’re going to call for an official recall like Dennis Kucinich has done!
My initial suggestion was to compare the actual vote counts by hand vs. by machine against the exit polls, if an exit poll could be found that aggregated the data according to the vote counting method used in the precinct where the voter was interviewed. Of course this variable was not in the published exit polls. In my enthusiasm I imagined someone in the blogosphere knowing someone in one of the companies that do exit polls, so they could try to get the raw data from election night re-analysed. But see below.
- if a statistically significant discrepancy between the vote percentages and the exit polls, aggregated separated by vote counting method, were found, one would have to remember that correlation doesn’t imply causation. One could imagine socioeconomic variables correlating independently with both the Clinton/Obama swing and the use of voting machines in a precinct. For instance, rural vs. urban precincts, the size of the town, the average income of the town, whether the local government is democrat or republican controlled, etc. All of these plausible explanations would have to be controlled for before one could claim to have evidence of election fraud.
A very interesting discussion, promoted by In Wales - some intro after the jump.
Read the rest of this entry »
Posted in
Caucus |
No Comments »